Monday, November 26, 2007

Annapolis Thoughts Part 1

I am genuinely confused as to what to write regarding Annapolis. In theory it could be nothing - simply a photo-op - and on the other hand they can potentially make an agreement there to make me homeless and give back the entire West Bank - even the Old City!

The greatest probability is that they will declare the kick-off of negotiations with a year-long schedule to reach a "final" Peace Agreement.

So, what is there to say?

Today I went through a very comprehensive video presentation on Guardian website. (link) Look at it. I have a couple of comments.

1. I find the Palestinian positions so extreme, that I think we need to listen more closely to Palestinian speakers. They won't compromise on Jerusalem. They won't compromise on the "right" of return. what exactly will they give us?

2. Kasaam: Nothing is mentioned about Kasaam rockets. For me this is my central worry. Nothing is mentioned about the fact that with the West Bank in Palestinian hands puts all central Israel under Hamas rocket fire. With the best intentions can it work?

Did you see Nadav Shragai's piece in HaAretz (link)? He shows how a split Jerusalem signals the end of Jerusalem. worrying to say the least!

Did you know that today (Monday) TWO kassam rockets fell on Sderot. Just an average day for a border town.

3. How can we make Peace with Fatah when they have no power over Hamas who control Gaza? We envisage democracy for the West Bank and the future Palestinian State. And if Hamas is voted in? they will simply revoke all signed Peace agreements!

Today's headline from Hamas: ""The Land of Palestine ... is purely owned by the Palestinians," senior Hamas official Mahmoud Zahar said in a speech. "No person, group, government or generation has the right to give up one inch of it." "Anyone who stands in the face of resistance or fights it or cooperates with the occupation against it is a traitor,"

4. On the other hand, can we really let the situation just "sit"? We all know the demographic equation. We all realise that the more time progresses, the more a solution becomes difficult. No one wants to rule over a million Palestinians who don't want us. Do we want to be manning roadblocks for the next 40 years? Do we want to be an occupying army for the foreseeable future? Maybe we have to make a painful cut and just have it be over and done with.

But at what price? Land? the Old City? the Kotel? at the price of missiles in our cities?

5. I fear that the Palestinians do know what it means to stop this. They will agree to something and then press on with further claims and more and more. And the world will simply back them.

See the post with Shlomo Ben Ami (below)

I fear that Olmert is doing this to gamble that he can strengthen Fatah over Hamas. Haven't we learned (from Lebanon and PA) that we are powerless to manoeuvre and meddle in Arab politics?

I fear that some of this is about Iran. Olmert thinks that if we "solve" the Palestinian "front" it will give no justification for Iran to threaten us with Nuclear Weapons. I think he is fooling himself. They will simply cook up a reason.

As you can see, I am rather fearful of this conference.

No comments: